%0 Journal Article
%A Biing-T. Guan
%A Zenn-Bor Huang and Nien-June Chung
%T Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Potential Tree Plant Forms of a Mountain Region in Central Taiwan
%D 2003
%J Taiwania
%V 48
%N 4
%P 259-272
%U https://taiwania.ntu.edu.tw/abstract/22
%X this study we used Box’s model, which is based on the equilibrium relationships between macroclimate and plant forms, to assess the possible impacts of climate change on the potential tree plant forms of a mountain region in central Taiwan. To account for the effects of uncertainty associated with the projected climatic conditions on the model’s predictions, a Monte Carlo study was also carried out. For the temperature variables in the model, they varied between 0 and 5°C above the long-term average; for the precipitation related variables, the projected precipitation varied between ±30% of the long-term average. The responses of tree plant forms to temperature increases could be divided into three categories: (1) those that would not be influenced, (2) those that could disappear gradually, including summergreen tree species, which are more sensitive to temperature and require a lower temperature to exist, and (3) those that could appear gradually, including tropical tree species. Under the projected precipitation conditions, most of the tree plant forms currently present would not be influenced, except for rainforest and raingreen tree plant forms. The necessary data for Box’s model could be obtained easily from usual climatic databases, and the results have a higher resolution than Holdridge Life Zone model. When detailed information necessary to run high-resolution models is not available, the approach used in this study could be used as an alternative.
%M doi:10.6165/tai.2003.48(4).259