Research Paper

A dynamic downscaling approach to generate scale-free regional climate data in Taiwan

Huan-Yu Lin, Jer-Ming Hu, Tze-Ying Chen, Chang-Fu Hsieh, Guangyu Wang, Tongli Wang

Published on: 10 August 2018

Page: 251 - 266

DOI: 10.6165/tai.2018.63.251

  • BibTeX
    •
  • EndNote
    •
  • RIS
    •

    Abstract

    Plenty of climate data from various sources have become available in recent years. However, to obtain climate data adequately meeting the requirement of ecological studies remains a challenge in some cases due to the difficulty of data integration and the complexity of downscaling, especially for mountainous regions. Lapse rate is one of the most important factors that influence the change of climatic variables in the mountains, and it should be incorporated into climatic models. In this study, we applied a synthetic approach combining bilinear interpolation (to produce seamless surfaces) and dynamic local regression (to obtain local lapse rates) to develop a scale-free and topography-correspondent downscaling model in R environment for Taiwan, called clim.regression. This model can generate 73 climatic variable estimates specific to the user-defined points of interest, including primary climatic variables and additional biologically relevant derivatives for historical (1960‒2009) and future periods (2016‒2035, 2046‒2065 and 2081‒2100). Results of our evaluation indicated that clim.regression reduced prediction error by 54.6%‒66.7% relative to the original gridded climate data for temperatures. In addition, we demonstrated the spatiotemporal patterns of lapse rate for different climate variables.

    Keyword: Climate change, Downscaling model, Dynamic local regression, Historical and future climate scenarios, TCCIP

    Literature Cited

    Barry, R.G. and R.J. Choreley. 2009. Atmosphere, Weather and Climate, 9th edition, Routledge, London, 536 pp.

    Chao, W.C., G.-Z.M. Song, K.J. Chao, C.C. Liao, S.W. Fan, S.H. Wu, T.H. Hsieh, I.F. Sun, Y.L. Kuo and C.F. Hsieh. 2010. Lowland rainforests in southern Taiwan and Lanyu, at the northern border of Paleotropics and under the influence of monsoon wind. Plant Ecology 210(1): 1-17.
    DOI: 10.1007/s11258-009-9694-0View Article Google Scholar

    Chiou, C.R., Y.C. Liang, Y.J. Lai and M.Y. Huang. 2004. A study of delineation and application of the climatic zones in Taiwan. Journal of Taiwan Geographic Information Science 1(1): 41-62. [in Chinese with English summary]
    DOI: 10.29790/JTGIS.200410.0004View Article Google Scholar

    Chiou, C.R., G.-Z. M. Song, J.H. Chien, C.F. Hsieh, J.C. Wang, M.Y. Chen, H.Y. Liu, C.L. Yeh, Y.J. Hisa and T.Y. Chen. 2010. Altitudinal distribution patterns of plant species in Taiwan are mainly determined by the northeast monsoon rather than the heat retention mechanism of Massenerhebung. Bot. Stud. 51: 89-97.

    Chiu, C.A. 2004. Regionalized mountain vegetation and predicted potential vegetation-The application of climate-vegetation classification scheme. Shei-Pa National Park Headquarters, Miaoli, Taiwan, ROC, 42pp. [in Chinese]

    Chiu, C.A. and P.H. Lin. 2004. Spatial Interpolation of air temperature and precipitation from meteorological stations at Taiwan. Atmospheric Sciences 32(4): 329-350. [in Chinese with English summary]

    Chiu, C.A., P.H. Lin and C.Y. Tsai. 2014. Spatio-temporal variation and monsoon effect on the temperature lapse rate of a subtropical island. Terr. Atmos. Ocean Sci. 25(2): 203-217.
    DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2013.11.08.01(A)View Article Google Scholar

    Daly, C., W.P. Gibson, G.H. Taylor, G.L. Johnson, and P.Pasteris. 2002. A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate. Clim. Res. 22:99-113.
    DOI: 10.3354/cr022099View Article Google Scholar

    Guan, B. T., H. W. Hsu, T. H. Wey and L. S. Tsao. 2009. Modeling monthly mean temperatures for the mountain regions of Taiwan by generalized additive models. Agr. Forest Meteorol. 149(2): 281-290.
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.08.010View Article Google Scholar

    Hannaway, D.B., C. Daly, W.X. Cao, W.H. Luo, Y.R. Wei, W.L. Zhang, A.G. Xu, C.A. Lu, X.Z. Shi and L.X. Li. 2005. Forage species suitability mapping for China using topographic, climatic and soils spatial data and quantitative plant tolerances. Agr. Sci. China 4(9): 660-667.

    Harris, I., P.D. Jones, T.J. Osborn and D.H. Lister. 2014. Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-the CRU TS 3.10 Dataset. Int. J. Climatol. 34(3): 623-642.
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.3711View Article Google Scholar

    Hijmans, R.J., S.E. Cameron, J.L. Parra, P.G. Jones and A. Jarvis. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surface for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. 25(15): 1965-1978.
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.1276View Article Google Scholar

    Hsu, H.H., C. Chou, Y.C. Wu, M.M. Lu, C.T. Chen and Y.M. Chen. 2011. Climate Change in Taiwan: Scientific Report 2011 (Summary). National Science Council, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC, 67pp.

    Lenoir, J., J.C. Gegout, P.A. Marquet, P. de Ruffary and H. Brisse. 2008. A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century. Science 320(5884): 1768-1771.
    DOI: 10.1126/science.1156831View Article Google Scholar

    Li, C.F., M. Chytry, D. Zeleny, M.Y. Chen, T.Y. Chen, C.R. Chiou, Y.J. Hsia, H.Y. Liu, S.Z. Yang, C.L. Yeh, J.C. Wang, C.F. Yu, Y.J. Lai, W.C. Chao and C.F. Hsieh. 2013. Classification of Taiwan forest vegetation. Appl. Veg. Sci. 16: 698-719.
    DOI: 10.1111/avsc.12025View Article Google Scholar

    Lin, C. ., C.F. Li, D. Zeleny, M. Chytry, Y. Nakamura, M. Y. Chen, T.Y. Chen, Y.J. Hsia, C.F. Hsieh, H.Y. Liu, J.C. Wang, S.Z. Yang, C.L. Yeh and C.R. Chiou. 2012. Classification of the high-mountain coniferous forests in Taiwan. Foilia Geobot 47: 373-401.
    DOI: 10.1007/s12224-012-9128-yView Article Google Scholar

    Lin, L.Y. 2011. Annual report on Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform (TCCIP) project. NSC98-2625-M-492-011. National Science Council, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC, 166 pp. [in Chinese with English summary]

    Pepin, N. 2001. Lapse rate changes in northern England. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 68(1-2): 1-16.
    DOI: 10.1007/s007040170049View Article Google Scholar

    Su, H.J. 1984a. Studies on the climate and vegetation types of the natural forests in Taiwan (I). Analysis of the variations in climatic factors. Quarterly Jounal of Chinese Forestry 17(3): 1-14.

    Su, H.J. 1984b. Studies on the climate and vegetation types of the natural forests in Taiwan (II). Altitudinal vegetation zones in relation to temperature gradient. Quarterly Jounal of Chinese Forestry 17(4): 57-73.

    Su, H.J. 1985. Studies on the climate and vegetation types of the natural forests in Taiwan (III). A scheme of geographical climatic regions. Quarterly Jounal of Chinese Forestry 18(3): 33-44.

    Sun, I.F. 1993. The species composition and forest structure of a subtropical rain forest at southern Taiwan. PhD Thesis, University of California, Berkeley, USA.

    Sun, I.F., C.F. Hsieh and S.P. Hubbell. 1998. The structure and species composition of a subtropical monsoon forest in southern Taiwan on a steep wind-stress gradient. In: Dallmeier, F. and J. A. Comiskey (eds) Forest Biodiversity Research, monitoring and modeling: conceptual background and old word case studies. Parthenon Publishing Co., Paris, France, pp 565-635.

    Tang, C.Q. 2006. Forest vegetation as related to climate and soil conditions at varying altitudes on a humid subtropical mountain, Mount Emei, Sichuan, China. Ecological Research 21(2): 174-180.
    DOI: 10.1007/s11284-005-0106-1View Article Google Scholar

    Tang, C.Q. and M. Ohsawa. 1997. Zonal transition of evergreen, deciduous, and coniferous forests along the altitudinal gradient on a humid subtropical mountain, Mt. Emei, Sichuan, China. Plant Ecology 133:63-78

    Wang, T., A. Hamann, D. Spittlehouse and S.N. Aitken. 2006. Development of scale-free climate data for western Canada for use in resource management. Int. J. Climatol. 26(3): 283-397.
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.1247View Article Google Scholar

    Wang T., A. Hamann, D. Spittlehouse and C. Carroll. 2016. Locally downscaled and spatially customizable climate data for historical and future periods for North America. PLoS One 11(6): e0156720.
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0156720View Article Google Scholar

    Wang, T., A. Hamann, D. Spittlehouse and T.Q. Murdock. 2012. ClimateWNA-high-resolution spatial climate data for Western North America. ?J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 51(1): 16-29.
    DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-043.1View Article Google Scholar

    Wang, T., G. Wang, J.L. Innes, B. Seely and B. Chen. 2017. ClimateAP: an application for dynamic local downscaling of historical and future climate data in Asia Pacific. Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering 4(4): 448-458.
    DOI: 10.15302/J-FASE-2017172View Article Google Scholar

    Weng, S.P. and C.T. Yang. 2012. The construction of monthly rainfall and temperature dataset with 1km gridded resolution over Taiwan area (1960-2009) and its application to climate projection in the near future (2015-2039). Atmospheric Sciences 40(4): 349-369. [in Chinese with English summary]

    Willmott, C.J. and K. Matsuura. 2009. Terrestrial Air Temperature and Precipitation: Monthly Climatologies (version 4.01). Global Air Temperature and Precipitation Archive.